Tropical forests struggling to keep pace with climate change – Researcher – EnviroNews

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Tropical forests in the Americas are struggling to keep pace with climate change, sparking concerns about their long-term survival, the University of Adelaide said in a news release on Thursday, April 3, 2025.

Sami Rifai, a lecturer from the University of Adelaide, warned that, by 2100, temperatures could rise up to 4 degrees Celsius and rainfall could drop 20 per cent.

This is pushing forests further out of balance and making them more vulnerable to extreme climate events.

An international study involving more than 100 scientists and local partners, provides key insights for conservationists working to protect tropical rainforests, which are vital for global climate regulation and biodiversity.

However, their ability to adapt to climate change remains limited.

“Due to how rapidly climate change is altering temperature and precipitation patterns, tree communities are responding too slowly to remain in equilibrium with their environment,’’ Rifai said.

In spite of the decades of climate change, the study found that tree communities have shifted less than 8 per cent of what is needed to keep pace with changing environmental conditions.

He said that this slow adaptation threatens biodiversity, and a critical role rainforests play in climate regulation.

The research team analysed over 250,000 trees from 415 permanent forest plots spanning Mexico to southern Brazil, assessing how different species are responding to rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.

This is according to the study published recently in Science.

By identifying which tree species are struggling or thriving under these changes, scientists hoped to inform conservation actions and the allocation of funding, said Jesus Aguirre-Gutierrez.

Aguirre-Gutierrez is from the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute, who led the research.